Retail and industry executives agree: No major surprises are expected in the short term, but the market will remain under pressure due to dynamics that are now a structural part of mass consumption in Spain.
Growth will be moderate—around 1% in volume, according to panelists' forecasts—and accompanied by a contained food CPI. However, beneath this appearance of stability lie profound transformations. Proximity is consolidating its position as one of the major drivers of retail, driven by smaller households, less planned purchases, and growing demand for convenience. At the same time, private label will continue to expand its share, supported by consumers' search for savings.
CEOs' concerns are recurring and intensifying: Difficulty attracting and retaining talent, rising labor costs, eroding margins, persistent inflation in fresh produce, and the need to gain efficiency. The global context is not helping either, with geopolitical uncertainty, tensions in raw materials, and consumers saving more and spending less.
Success in 2026 calls for flawless execution as competition becomes ever more granular in an increasingly polarized market. Businesses can expect to redefine formats—from hypermarkets to discount stores—, normalize omnichannel retailing, and accelerate digital transformation. On top of this, artificial intelligence—which is already beginning to influence purchasing decisions—will begin influencing management models and internal processes.
Brand manufacturers, for their part, will have to rely on innovation, value communication, and more active commercial policies if they want to regain ground against private labels. Consumers are in charge, and their search for fair prices, convenience, and clarity in the value/experience equation will define the competition.
To understand these key factors and anticipate the opportunities that will arise in a year that promises to be stable but far from easy, FRS brings together ten expert voices from the FMCG sector in Spain. Their reflections paint a picture of 2026 where efficiency will be essential, technology will act as a driving force, and talent will become the real engine of transformation.
→ IGNACIO GONZÁLEZ, President of AECOC
According to the latest AECOC report on Prospects for Mass Consumption in 2026, companies in the sector are optimistic and forecast solid growth despite geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Most believe that it will be a positive year, although they are pinning their growth expectations on population growth and tourism rather than on an increase in household spending, as disposable income has not increased in the last ten years.
In a context where consumer confidence has not yet taken off and savings rates are skyrocketing, the consumer goods sector is closely monitoring developments in the political and economic landscape and designing its own strategies to try to boost consumption and recover some of the profitability lost during the recent inflationary crisis.
Fortunately, we are no longer facing the inflation rates that the sector and consumers contended with just a few years ago. Even so, the evolution of costs of certain raw materials and the impact of health crises such as avian flu are causing some concern.
Be that as it may, the mass consumption value chain is preparing to continue adding value for consumers by creating new consumption opportunities and innovating, kicking off a year that does not look bad, but will certainly bring surprises. It does not seem that microeconomics or geopolitics will make it easy, but even so, the sector will continue to set an example of efficiency, competitiveness, and responsibility without losing its smile.
→ JUANMA MORALES, President of Eurocommerce
The sector is facing a new year in which, barring any surprises, the major trends that have marked recent years will continue. Everything points to Spain once again advancing at a faster pace than Europe as a whole, consolidating a growth dynamic that is more intense than the EU average. This momentum, according to various market players, does not seem likely to change in the short term.
There are no signs of a shift in the growth of proprietary brands or distributor brands, whose market share continues to expand steadily. The sector agrees that only a significant change in the price positioning of manufacturer brands could alter this trajectory.
On top of this competitive pressure, concerns among European retail CEOs affect the entire sector. These include the growing difficulty in attracting and retaining talent, especially in a context of sustained increases in labor costs. This challenge has a direct impact on the execution capacity of management teams and the competitiveness of European retail, adding an additional element of complexity in an already demanding management context.
Last but not least, the sector insists on the urgent need to ensure the proper functioning of the single European market and to establish truly level operational conditions—the much-mentioned level playing field—against platforms and operators from third countries. This regulatory protection is vital to preserving the competitiveness of retail, both in the food and non-food sectors, and to sustaining the sector's growth capacity in the coming years.
→ JOSÉ Mª RODRÍGUEZ, President of the Euromadi Group
According to forecasts by the leading market research companies (Nielsen and Kantar), growth in 2026 will be slightly lower than in 2025, with a total market volume of around 1% and a food CPI of close to 2%.
At Euromadi, we remain convinced that food distribution will continue to grow next year and we are particularly optimistic about the evolution of the proximity sector.
The latest studies show that consumers are planning their purchases less and socio-demographic trends indicate a reduction in the number of people per household, factors that favor this format. Furthermore, given the difficulty of translating GDP growth into purchasing power, we believe that promotions and private labels will be essential.
Overall, the consumer goods sector will face a year of significant challenges but also opportunities for growth in which efficiency, digitalization, innovation, and rapid adaptation to new consumer demands will make all the difference.
→ ELODIE PERTHUISOT, CEO Carrefour Spain
Future challenges aren't known—they're prepared for. The CEO's responsibility is not to predict the uncertain, but to prepare the organization to address the trends that are already transforming our sector, because we will only be able to grow if we are able to surpass ourselves.
That is what it is all about: identifying the areas where we need to focus our efforts and seize opportunities. First, with a contextual approach. It is no longer enough to adapt the product to the customer, but to the moment: We are not the same person on a Saturday afternoon as we are on a Monday when we leave the office. Second, with the food transition: awareness of well-being is growing and our challenge is to democratize healthy food that is accessible to all.
Finally, the radical impact of artificial intelligence. Today, our partners at El Club Carrefour already consult AI before making a purchase of a particular product or brand. Therefore, the success of our response will depend on two key factors: placing AI governance at the strategic heart of the company and, fundamentally, integrating this technology into the culture of our teams and the values of the company.
The answers will not come from elsewhere: we will develop them ourselves to continue creating the future of retail. Technology is the engine, but human talent is the steering wheel.
→ JOAQUÍN JIMÉNEZ, Commercial and Marketing Director at Juver
The year 2026 is coming, ready to take us out of our comfort zone for good. Reality is persistent, and although it may be difficult or uncomfortable to accept, Spanish society has changed, and so has its consumers.
We see this in habits and moments of consumption. Channels are no longer siloed, we live in a fully omnichannel world, with retailers incorporating Ready to Eatspaces and restaurateurs beginning to enter customers' homes. The boundaries of the ecosystem are blurring.
The socioeconomic, cultural, and demographic profile has also undergone structural changes over the last 15 years. Only companies that have been able to interpret this transformation are now leading their markets. Even tourism, our main source of GDP, continues to surprise us. International visitors are becoming increasingly familiar with what Spanish retail has to offer, matching our hospitality offerings.
On a more mundane level, and returning to last year's reflection, the growth of retail space continues to outpace domestic volume. This leads us to predict that 2026 will be more focused on negotiating the second decimal place than on what is really important, which is satisfying the consumer.
I hope I am wrong. And I hope we continue to learn.
→ JOSÉ RAMÓN FERNÁNDEZ DE BARRENA, President of Grupo Uvesco
After several years of unexpected situations with health crises, armed conflicts, and double-digit increases in food prices, this year is turning out to be what we could describe as “normal” or, at least, more similar to what we were used to before, with moderate price increases and moderate increases in purchase volume.
As a result, we will find ourselves in a similar situation in 2026, where one of our priorities will continue to be to capture the highest possible percentage of our customers' pocket share.
To achieve this, it will remain essential to get our loyalty policies right and continue improving promotions aimed at our customers. And, of course, we must not forget something essential: providing quality service to our customers so that they have the best possible experience when making a purchase.
→ PASCUAL CAMPOS RUS, CEO of Supermercados Plaza
In 2026, the food retail sector will become even more polarized. The battle for market share is already being fought and will become even more fierce on a street-by-street basis between local operators. This polarization means that, between the short assortment/price formats and the fair value formats, there is less and less room left to defend oneself clearly. Therefore, the retailers that remain in the middle may have to migrate to one pole or the other if they want to avoid this lack of definition reducing their market share and perhaps even their future in the market.
In terms of formats, in 2026, the hypermarket channel will continue to struggle to compensate for its free fall in market share, adjusting its models in size, streamlining its commercial spaces, and focusing on the in-store experience. This struggle will surely require more speed and a shift in mindset toward having the soul of a large supermarket rather than a small hypermarket.
It is not easy to change one's DNA, but this will be part of the future success of the hyper format.
Price pressure will also be a hot topic in 2026, perhaps becoming more flexible at the CPI level. Even so, it will be very much on consumers' minds due to the actual data on cumulative increases in recent periods. This means that the price/value equation must be measured at all times, both in terms of replacement prices and in terms of promotional scope and intensity.
For all these reasons, private labels will continue to entrench themselves in the market and leading manufacturers will find that innovation, communication of their values/origin, support for retailers with a wide range of products, and fair prices are the way to emerge victorious from this battle.
The consolidation of the retail sector will continue its course. Increasingly, operations must be studied in greater detail and, specifically, each merger should guarantee value creation and respect for successful business models. Furthermore, every operation serves as an opportunity for management teams to demonstrate their humility, their eagerness to learn, and their respect for legacies and essences.
With regard to Plaza Retail Supermercados, we will continue to move forward with our 24/29 strategic plan. We are confident that our Alma de Mercado adds value to the sector and guides us on our path. We will continue to be a space for people who serve and work with people, as well as a showcase for the best quality brands on the market at fair prices. Our new stores will be the kind of stores we all want to have close to home, following the path opened up by the opening of Plaza Bahía Center.
→ DAVID NAVAS, CEO of Unide
In my opinion, the competitive pressure we are experiencing in the sector this year will intensify throughout 2026. Consumers will seek the maximum possible savings in their shopping baskets as a strategy to balance a purchasing power that is becoming increasingly limited; consequently, the share of private labels will continue to grow as customers chase these savings. This trend could only be mitigated if manufacturer brands react with a more promotionally active commercial policy.
This household microeconomic environment and consumer behavior will favor discount and limited-assortment operators. Faced with this situation, regional operators will have to fight against the inflation of fresh products (which was very high in 2025) to defend their unique business model, which is leveraged on perishables.
Proximity will remain another key competitive factor, through stores located closer to the customer with an assortment increasingly oriented toward convenience (ready-made meals, coffee and pastries, cold drinks, etc.), mostly operated by franchisees or cooperative partners.
With an economy showing high employment levels, attracting and retaining talent within store teams, distribution hubs, and headquarters will be a core competency. Today, more than ever, teams with a high degree of commitment and involvement are needed to navigate challenges such as absenteeism, high turnover, and excessive bureaucracy.
→ ANTONIO SÁNCHEZ BONED, Consumer Goods Advisor, SDG Group
Another year concludes where it seems no major breakthroughs have occurred. This year, we will see growth in value and slight growth in volume, as was anticipated. Internally, there are significant changes mainly affecting manufacturers, with major shifts being announced at very prominent companies within the sector.
We cannot simply wait to be swept away by events. The only way to sustain ourselves is the pursuit of efficiency as the sole path forward. In 2026, we will witness sustained evolution without massive shocks—that is the nature of our sector.
The consumer will remain attentive to what affects them, and they are ultimately the ones who dictate the outcome. I would recommend conducting analysis exercises in cross-functional projects, using data as an ally.
The concept of ‘Gross to Net’ as a new focus will surely help us on the road to efficiency across the entire value chain. Artificial Intelligence must streamline timelines and processes. We must be prepared for another exciting year.
→ JOSÉ IGNACIO CABALLERO, business advisor
Taking into account that 2025 has not generally been a bad year for the consumer goods sector, manufacturers and retailers face a 2026 full of challenges (as always) to address several issues that, though well-known, are no less relevant:
• The aging of the population
• Changing habits among the younger population
• New consumption patterns from residents not born in Spain
• Growth of Private Labels (MDD) with ever-increasing quality
• A trend toward a generalized erosion of margins to gain competitiveness
• Cost optimization across the entire supply chain
• Complex regulation
• Difficulty in recruiting authentic talent and combating absenteeism
There is nothing new under the sun; however, maintaining the widespread positive results of the year now ending implies that we must continue reinventing ourselves every day to win the favor of consumers.
As I say, nothing new compared to the last 30 years…
Originally published in Spanish on FRS Food Retail & Service, here.